Lamar Jackson won his second NFL MVP but came just one first-place vote short of becoming the NFL's first two-time unanimous MVP.
That one vote was cast by FTNFantasy's Aaron Schatz. Schatz had the Ravens quarterback at third behind Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott.
Allen finished fifth overall in the voting, while Prescott came in a distant second.
AP NFL MVP voting
— Rob Maaddi (@RobMaaddi) February 9, 2024
Lamar Jackson 49-0-1-0-0 = 493
Dak Prescott 0-17-13-11-6 = 152
Christian McCaffrey 0-17-12-11-4 = 147
Brock Purdy 0-9-5-12-13 = 97
Josh Allen 1-5-11-3-6 = 80
Tyreek Hill 0-2-6-9-14 = 60
Patrick Mahomes 0-0-2-2-2 = 12
C.J. Stroud…
Schatz published his vote with an explanation, which he also used for why he left Jackson off his All-Pro team vote.
Out at dinner so I can’t sit on Twitter. But I know my awards ballot is controversial, so I wrote about it. https://t.co/5FJbpybdZm
— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@ASchatzNFL) February 9, 2024
"There's no question, Lamar Jackson's season was impressive. I trust the film study people who believe he has never been better as a passer, even if his numbers were better in 2019. He's processing better. He's throwing the ball better. He's hitting those tough throws outside the numbers better. Lamar Jackson passes the eye test," Schatz wrote.
"But Josh Allen and Dak Prescott pass the eye test as well. These are all talented quarterbacks. I'm a stat guy. I'm going to look at stats. There's no question that by nearly every advanced metric you could look at, Josh Allen and Dak Prescott had better seasons than Lamar Jackson."
Schatz cited FTNFantasy's own metric, DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement), where Jackson ranked seventh among quarterbacks. Schatz pointed to DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) as a per-play calculation and had Jackson scoring sixth among quarterbacks – well above Prescott (No. 11), but well below Allen (second) and the 49ers' Brock Purdy (first).
When it comes to Jackson's value to the Ravens not only as a passer, but as a runner, Schatz also gave big points to Allen for that. He factored in Pro Football Focus grades. Schatz wrote that he believes Baltimore's top three wide receivers were better than Buffalo's top three wideouts (even though he concedes the loss of tight end Mark Andrews was big).
"I looked at all this data. I tried to make the case for Lamar Jackson. I tried very hard to convince myself that I felt he was the guy. And I just could not do it," Schatz wrote. "He had a great season. He's a very good quarterback. I simply do not believe he was the best quarterback in the NFL this year, even though he led the best team."
Literally every other voter disagrees.
What Schatz seems to have missed is the context beyond the stats and analytics. A huge one is wins and losses, and specifically games that not only a quarterbacks helped their team win, but games they lost.
Allen threw three interceptions and lost a fumble in the Bills' Week 1 loss to the Jets. Allen fumbled on the Bills' final possession to seal a 29-25 loss to the Patriots, also one of the league's weakest teams. Allen had two interceptions, a critical third quarter lost fumble, and only threw for 177 yards in a home loss to the Broncos.
Jackson had seven interceptions this season. Allen had 18. When it comes to winning games, which Jackson did more of this season, not turning the ball over is a critical aspect. Two of Jackson's three regular-season losses came against teams that made the playoffs, and he beat several of the league's best squads.
