Predicting Lotto Numbers: A Natural Experiment on the Gambler's Fallacy and the Hot-Hand Fallacy (2024)

Suetens, S., Galbo-Jorgensen, C. B. (2016). Predicting Lotto Numbers: A Natural Experiment on the Gambler's Fallacy and the Hot-Hand Fallacy . Journal of the European Economic Association, 14(3), 584-607. https://doi.org/10.1111/jeea.12147

Suetens, Sigrid ; Galbo-Jorgensen, Claus B. ; Tyran, Jean-Robert. / Predicting Lotto Numbers : A Natural Experiment on the Gambler's Fallacy and the Hot-Hand Fallacy . in: Journal of the European Economic Association. 2016 ; Band 14, Nr. 3. S. 584-607.

@article{04e1f2a988284a8d8c9392f306195c64,

title = "Predicting Lotto Numbers: A Natural Experiment on the Gambler's Fallacy and the Hot-Hand Fallacy ",

abstract = "We investigate the {"}law of small numbers{"} using a data set on lotto gambling that allows us to measure players' reactions to draws. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week, we find that those who do change, react on average as predicted by the law of small numbers as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular, players tend to bet less on numbers that have been drawn in the preceding week, as suggested by the {"}gambler's fallacy{"}, and bet more on a number if it was frequently drawn in the recent past, consistent with the {"}hot-hand fallacy{"}.",

keywords = "IB, Cat1, VWL, VCEE, EVENTS, MARKET, BASKETBALL, SEQUENCES, PERFORMANCE, PERSISTENCE, RETURNS, EFFICIENCY, D84, D03, D81",

author = "Sigrid Suetens and Galbo-Jorgensen, {Claus B.} and Jean-Robert Tyran",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2015 by the European Economic Association",

year = "2016",

month = jun,

doi = "10.1111/jeea.12147",

language = "English",

volume = "14",

pages = "584--607",

journal = "Journal of the European Economic Association",

issn = "1542-4766",

publisher = "Oxford University Press",

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Suetens, S, Galbo-Jorgensen, CB 2016, 'Predicting Lotto Numbers: A Natural Experiment on the Gambler's Fallacy and the Hot-Hand Fallacy ', Journal of the European Economic Association, Jg. 14, Nr. 3, S. 584-607. https://doi.org/10.1111/jeea.12147

Predicting Lotto Numbers : A Natural Experiment on the Gambler's Fallacy and the Hot-Hand Fallacy . / Suetens, Sigrid; Galbo-Jorgensen, Claus B.; Tyran, Jean-Robert.

in: Journal of the European Economic Association, Band 14, Nr. 3, 06.2016, S. 584-607.

Veröffentlichungen: Beitrag in Fachzeitschrift › Artikel › Peer Reviewed

TY - JOUR

T1 - Predicting Lotto Numbers

T2 - A Natural Experiment on the Gambler's Fallacy and the Hot-Hand Fallacy

AU - Suetens, Sigrid

AU - Galbo-Jorgensen, Claus B.

AU - Tyran, Jean-Robert

N1 - Publisher Copyright:© 2015 by the European Economic Association

PY - 2016/6

Y1 - 2016/6

N2 - We investigate the "law of small numbers" using a data set on lotto gambling that allows us to measure players' reactions to draws. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week, we find that those who do change, react on average as predicted by the law of small numbers as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular, players tend to bet less on numbers that have been drawn in the preceding week, as suggested by the "gambler's fallacy", and bet more on a number if it was frequently drawn in the recent past, consistent with the "hot-hand fallacy".

AB - We investigate the "law of small numbers" using a data set on lotto gambling that allows us to measure players' reactions to draws. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week, we find that those who do change, react on average as predicted by the law of small numbers as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular, players tend to bet less on numbers that have been drawn in the preceding week, as suggested by the "gambler's fallacy", and bet more on a number if it was frequently drawn in the recent past, consistent with the "hot-hand fallacy".

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KW - EVENTS

KW - MARKET

KW - BASKETBALL

KW - SEQUENCES

KW - PERFORMANCE

KW - PERSISTENCE

KW - RETURNS

KW - EFFICIENCY

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KW - D03

KW - D81

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Suetens S, Galbo-Jorgensen CB, Tyran J-R. Predicting Lotto Numbers: A Natural Experiment on the Gambler's Fallacy and the Hot-Hand Fallacy . Journal of the European Economic Association. 2016 Jun;14(3):584-607. Epub 2015 Aug 27. doi: 10.1111/jeea.12147